08 September 2007

UPDATE





CitiGroup and Dow Jones
look at citigroup's chart, a very clear double top is formed neckline at 48, broken downward, already retraced the neckline and starts falling again, it will reach no less than 41. dow also happened to be forming a high low top neckline at 12800, failing which a 1200 points [14000-12800] fall is in the cards.
a lot of people always ask about timing, take the time it took to form the double top and the fall usually takes about 1/2 to 1/3 of that time or shorter to reach the target. take citi as an example, it should take between 2.5-4 months to get there.
read my earlier update on hsbc, it happened all within one day to reach 132.

Hang Seng
hang seng is more tricky as the chart offers no conclusive evidence of double top, but look carefully at the volume, it falls steadily with the steep rise in the index from slightly below 20000 all the way up to 24000 with the formation of a rising wedge, this indicates it will fall back to below 20000 pretty fast. another indication that it has reached a top is because government usually buys at the top, with the hk govt increasing its stake in the hk stock exchange, it must have reached a top, at least for the short term.