look carefully at this chart, this is a classic multiple top with neckline around 132, reached 152 top in nov06 dropped to 132 in apr07, hit it again in aug07 retried 154 top but didnt manage to stay there for long.
if you try to track the sequence of events that hsbc came out to announce the bad news back in mar07, messages had already circulated on the web that hsbc was a strong sell as early as 25feb07 when its price was still at 140 and even further back in 4jan07. check here for more details :
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/
Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_H/
threadview?bn=8317&tid=5901&mid=5905
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/
Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_H/
threadview?bn=8317&tid=5629&mid=5639
you will have to cut and paste to connect the three lines to get the url since the blog site truncate the url if it is too long.
mr greenspan said he was not aware of the size of the subprime problem until very late, but everyone knew greenspan is a figures maniac ie he read a lot of statistics and the mortgage bankers association publish semi annual reports and had in their reports disclose that interest only and payment options home loan were growing like hell, so he just excused himself for his oversight. read greenspan evils in my earlier updates.
read also 11dec06 article titled Exotic, Non-Traditional, or Risky at following url: http://www.creditslips.org/creditslips/
mortgage_debt_home_equity/index.html
now it is entering a crucial phase, if it drops below 132 say hitting 126, then we will see a new low at 110 - unimaginable for hsbc fans, but probable. check my earlier forecast on hsbc. it may still bump around this area for a while before retreating below this level, the number of months it was above 132 is 16, so it would take roughly 5-8 months to reach this low if it ever would.
so watch closely this level - 132, and take particular attention to the months apr - jul in 2008.
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