The twin w of tse and hsi bottom formation did not materialize, instead hsi formed a double top around 15300 neckline 13200, it will likely hit 11100.
After the state of flux in oct, a lot of the over extended funds have liquidated their positions, the final third leg may take much longer to wind down - likely 6-9 months since the second leg took only three plus months to fall from 23000 to 10600.
gm is the lever that may trigger the next wave of selling [if it files for chapter 11] or any sharp rise of the market once a bailout plan is in shape even it might not have been announced to the public
commodity based currencies such as aud [0.626], nzd [0.543] and cad [1.26] are near their near term lows which indicates a deeper recession, thus dj has the possibiltiy to fall to 6000 depending on how things and data pan out.
20 November 2008
09 November 2008
TSX N HSI
some readers have asked me to add more canadian contents.
as canada is a small country population wise with a large area, the spread of info on the net is not as easy to locate. readers who have more info such as websites or key indices can comment via the comments icon at the bottom of each blog article so i can broaden the coverage.
tsx
hopefully if it climbs above 10400 and stay above it, it will at least achieve 12300 with resistance at 11900.
hsi
hang seng has a similar pattern trying to form a w bottom neckline around 15300 and achieving min 20000 with resistance around 17000. the qualifying criteria is a high volume pushing the index through 15600 and stay above it.
08 November 2008
Country/regions Update and others
USA
After election victory, obama should concentrate in the following areas:
The fallout will be bigger than most thought as her citizens are not familiar with capitalist style crashes, many are trying to avoid facing the ultimate consequences by unconventional tactics such as property owners not paying mortgages and arguing that promises made by developers on prospectuses are not met. Most consumers in developed regions know the bank and developer are not one party and any action against one will not have effect on the other, but such consumer behavior hurt banks along the way.
The export sector which comprises many manufacturing concerns had already been hit by slow or reduced orders from us and europe, it will have repercussions throughout the service sector such as logistics, restaurants and leisure industry, banking, insurance etc.
Meeting the min 8% growth next year will be difficult.
EUROPE
UK is the hardest hit followed by a number of countries such as spain and italy. the ecb simply has maintained interest rates way too high for too long and it may get into a deflation spiral.
JAPAN
It may have the safest currency for the moment, but its aging demographics will push it into an everlasting zero or negative growth for a long long while if it does not allow immigration into the country which will boost consumer spending and property demand.
Expect zero interest rates policy by key central banks to fend off depression which inevitably will lead to higher inflation not too soon into the future.
One bright spot that may come is HSI which may climb as high as 20000 if it forms a w bottom with neckline around 15300.
After election victory, obama should concentrate in the following areas:
- fiscal stimulus of the magnitude 1-3% of gdp for 2009 and maybe 2010 as well
- saving the auto industry from total collapse but avoiding bailouts which are costly to taxpayers, the industry must consolidate and uaw must give in to lower benefits and job protection
- all banks receiving govt support must not spend extravagantly or pay bonuses more than 1-2 years salary and that other employees must also be paid bonuses before management got paid so consumer confidence can rise early in the recovery to boost spending
- implement some form of universal health care
- cut wasteful govt spending such as support for farmers or biofuel mandate
- raise some form of duty on gasoline as crude prices fall to conserve oil reserves both locally and overseas
- retreat from iraq to cut military expenditure thus reducing govt deficits to free up resources for other areas.
The fallout will be bigger than most thought as her citizens are not familiar with capitalist style crashes, many are trying to avoid facing the ultimate consequences by unconventional tactics such as property owners not paying mortgages and arguing that promises made by developers on prospectuses are not met. Most consumers in developed regions know the bank and developer are not one party and any action against one will not have effect on the other, but such consumer behavior hurt banks along the way.
The export sector which comprises many manufacturing concerns had already been hit by slow or reduced orders from us and europe, it will have repercussions throughout the service sector such as logistics, restaurants and leisure industry, banking, insurance etc.
Meeting the min 8% growth next year will be difficult.
EUROPE
UK is the hardest hit followed by a number of countries such as spain and italy. the ecb simply has maintained interest rates way too high for too long and it may get into a deflation spiral.
JAPAN
It may have the safest currency for the moment, but its aging demographics will push it into an everlasting zero or negative growth for a long long while if it does not allow immigration into the country which will boost consumer spending and property demand.
Expect zero interest rates policy by key central banks to fend off depression which inevitably will lead to higher inflation not too soon into the future.
One bright spot that may come is HSI which may climb as high as 20000 if it forms a w bottom with neckline around 15300.
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