if djia reaches 11,000

many readers ask if djia reaches 11,000 where will hsi be?

my estimtes are below:

---------- DJIA "HSI

low ----- 6,500 10,676
high ---- 9,623 21,196
rebound% 48% "99% 2.06 times

if new
high --- 11,000 25,835
rebound% 69% "142% 2.06 times

present -- 9,546 20,098 28-Aug
djia to
11000 -- 15% -- 26,308 30.90% maintains 2.06 times
------------------ 24,439 21.60% 70% of 2.06 times
------------------ 23,203 15.45% 50% of 2.06 times

as there are no chart patterns at present to make a forecast of hsi, i assume the rebound or rally of hsi may not be as strong as the earlier part, therefore expect a discount which is why there are 70% estimates above.

even if djia does reach 11,000 in late 2009 or 2010, it has to make corrections before going higher, so only buy on heavy dips. my hunch is it may not get that high in 2009.

it is also important that djia would not fall through the critical support of 8800 during it's corrections.