21 April 2014

WORKERS' SHARE IS DWINDLING, PROFOUND IMPACT ON JAPAN

i have always wondered why the so called recovery seems so weak, the reason now is explained in a elaborate manner in the article below, which i think in all, is due to the corp taking a bigger pie and government unwilling to take more welfare into their hands that they allow such transfer of wealth from the consumer layman to the corporates.

with lower real income, consumers can only borrow to spend or spend less, thus eventually denting corp profits in the future.

this trend will likely have a profound impact on japan as well since their corporations have even less to share with their workers as their balance sheets are in shambles. raising the inflation specter will only hurt the citizens of japan, will not heal the current ills of the jap economy and will lead to further distrust with the politicians in power and later maybe, social unrest.



April 18, 2014, 6:15 a.m. EDT
Why you can’t get a raise — it’s simple
You deserve it, but you can’t make your boss pay you more
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch

MarketWatch
The share of current output that goes to workers as wages has fallen to a record low of 57%.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — For 24 million Americans, the biggest economic question is: “Where can I get a decent job?
For 146 million Americans, the biggest question is: “How can I get a raise?”
Wages and salaries are stagnant, failing to keep up with the rising cost of living. And it’s been that way for years. Median weekly wages of full-time workers, after adjusting for inflation, are no higher today than they were in 2001, and are just $1 more a week than they were in 1979.
Why can’t I get a raise? Ask your boss and he’ll tell you one of three things:
• The company can’t afford it.
• You don’t deserve it.
• You can’t make me.

Takeaways from banks' first-quarter earnings
As we’ll see, only the third reason makes sense. Bosses have all the bargaining power when it comes to wages. As a worker, you’re competing against those 22 million Americans who want a good job, plus millions — perhaps billions — here and abroad who’d be grateful to do your job for less.
The company can’t afford it.
Maybe your boss tells you that he’d like to pay you more, but he just can’t afford it. Extreme global competition, and onerous regulations and taxes are eating me alive, he says. The bottom line? I’m paying you all I can.
While it’s true that there are many businesses that can’t afford to raise wages because they are on the edge of failure, most businesses are doing quite well.
For corporate businesses, after-tax profits are at record levels as a share of national income. Since the recession ended, profits are up 65% to $1.68 trillion last year.
Small businesses aren’t doing quite so spectacularly, but their income is up 13% and their net worth is up 33% to $8.7 trillion since the recession ended.
And the workers? Even after a big gain in the first quarter, median wages are down 3% since the recession ended.
At the same time that wages have been falling, productivity (output per hour) has been steadily rising. Labor is producing more per hour, but getting paid less.
The share of national income that goes to labor (including the CEO’s salary and his stock options) has plunged from about 63% to 57%. The 6% of national income that’s going to profits instead of wages amounts to nearly $900 billion a year.
He can afford to pay you more.
You don’t deserve it.
You’re working hard, your boss says, but you aren’t worth any extra pay. Maybe you lack some essential skills that would make you more productive, or qualify you for a job that’s higher paying.
Some experts, including some of the more conservative Federal Reserve presidents, put a lot of emphasis on the skills gap, not only as a cause of so much unemployment but also as a reason for stagnant wages.
Economic theory suggests that workers should be paid what they are worth and no more. And what are they worth? Theory says it’s the value that each hour of labor provides to the firm, or the marginal revenue product.
The more skilled a worker is, the more revenue she brings in, and the more she gets paid. At least, that’s the theory.
But something strange is happening in the real world. Companies say they can’t find enough skilled workers to hire, and they say it’s hard to retain the skilled workers they have.
The obvious solution is for them to offer a high enough salary to attract the skills they need. That’s just basic supply-and-demand economics. And, yet, companies are not offering higher pay for the skills they need. Wages are not rising much for occupations said to be in short supply.
It could be that higher pay would exceed the worker’s marginal revenue product, but in that case, the company didn’t really need the skills, because it couldn’t put them to use profitably.
They needed skilled workers the same way I need a free pony.
There may be another reason for companies’ reluctance to pay more for skills: corporate culture. Cost-cutting has become so engrained in management’s DNA that companies have become afraid to spend money to make money. Firms lay off skilled teams of workers, even though they could be redeployed in profitable pursuits. Firms refuse to pay more for skills, even though it means they are leaving revenue and profits on the table.
It makes no sense, but that’s management for you.
You can’t make me.
The real reason you can’t get a raise is that the boss doesn’t have to give you one. You might be “worth” it, and the company could “afford” it, but businesses pay only what they have to and not a penny more.
There are a billion reasons you can’t get a raise: That’s how many people are willing to do your job for the same pay.
Globalization is a big factor in keeping wages down, of course. But you’re also competing against a lot of people in the U.S.; some of them may be standing right next to you. Mass unemployment, job insecurity and weakened labor rights give the company all the bargaining power when it comes to setting wages.
It wasn’t always this way. In the 1950s, 1960s and into the 1970s, trade barriers, strong unions and discrimination gave workers (white male workers, that is) more bargaining power to get higher pay. It created the middle class.
Ultimately, however, it helped enable the great inflation of the late 1970s.
The 1980s changed all that. Wages stagnated, as the U.S. began running a large trade deficit, and the Federal Reserve worked hard to keep unemployment high in order to fight inflation. President Ronald Reagan delivered the fatal blow to union power.
And, then, in the 1990s, something strange happened: The Fed consciously decided to let unemployment fall to 4%. And wages rose for the first time in 20 years, because workers were no longer competing against millions of desperate job seekers.
Best of all, higher wages didn’t come at the expense of lower profits or higher inflation.
We’re a long way from 4% unemployment, especially considering the millions who might join the labor force if they thought there might be a job for them. Let’s insist that the Fed let us get there again.
It turns out that, if you want a raise, the best thing to do is get your neighbor a job. 


12 April 2014

Cross Border Trading - Fortune or Curse

 HK/Shanghai Exchange Linked Cross Border Trading ELT

Only on Thursday have we heard the announcement of this ELT, HSI shot up right away but enthusiasm cool on Friday, why?

First of all, that is a short squeeze, timed with the announcement to make it more believable and short punters have no time to listen to others of their viewpoints of the scheme and many are frighten to close their positions.

Many fans of China opening up further on the financial front hurray this is a step in the right direction, but is it?

If you looked at the limits of Cross Border trading, it is not really opening up, it merely wants to attract further capital into China as the HK->Shanghai limit is 300b while the other way is 250b. Don't stop here, there is also a daily limit of about 13b vs 10.5b. That is to say if there is a crash, there is limit down ie once the limit is reached, you have to wait till tomorrow to sell. It will be a full 23 days before you can unload the full limit or load up the full limit.

If China is confident about her financial being, since her exchange reserves are way too high, it should allow the invest HK limit to be much bigger than the invest Shanghai limit.

How trustworthy are the financial accounts of listed companies in Shanghai and their shares in HK? No one really knows, but there is the belief that the Chinese knows better than the outside world and this is one reason for the low level of investors interest in China of A shares.

Many A/H shares have very high A share prices, but the China banking shares in HK are higher than those in China, while HSI is heavily weighted towards China Shares these days, we likely would see a southern drifting of the Shanghai market [sell those highly priced A share and buy H share in HK] and a lower HSI because China banking shares in HK will drift lower too.

There is a wait period of six months to realize the scheme and we still haven't heard the details of how to trade aside from the limits and details of qualified investors in China, there should be no comparative qualification of investors in HK.

Once all the full details are out, the markets would have adjusted to more normalized levels ie only a 2-3% difference between A/H shares that are traded on both markets.

Yet this is on the assumption that investors from China still wants to own those China shares, who knows, they might choose to avoid China heavy shares altogether.