Bad news on Russian oil sanctions

https://news.yahoo.com/macron-overheard-breaking-bad-news-151337111.html

Check out Yahoo news above.

If news are true, further Russian oil sanctions will push prices further up making inflation harder to tame.

Markets turning weaker

Crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital plunges into liquidation as market crash takes toll

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/29/crypto-hedge-fund-three-arrows-capital-plunges-into-liquidation.html

This is the reason Dow took a dive recently.

You may wonder Why's Dow related to crypto？

Think again, banks, VCs or hedge funds who have surplus funds aren't so accommodative for risk taking peers, it's likely Three Arrows Capital have to borrow to enhance its yield and any squeezing of trading capital provisions will lead to liquidation in a market that's hardly liquid.  Even Bitcoin can't survive the market liquidation and teetering just above USD20k and likely going lower with more rate hikes and QT coming.

W chart breakout didn't happen

In order for HSI to excel, it's necessary for the W chart formation to breakout, but given the gloomy Dow atmosphere, the W shape has collapsed at the neckline 22000.

So how bad is June going to close, my view is still not so negative, but that's comparative to May close only.

A potential silver lining is Ukraine war peace talks, how probable is this event？ It might start, but won't easily get to the finish point which is at least a few months down the line after it started, if any possibility.  

Russia will ask for Western sanctions to reverse and might not talk to Ukraine alone in any peace talks as it's gaining the upper hand now in the war and won't easily come to the table.

But you can never discount any news impact of peace talks in a war whether it's real or fake.  Any news of it will lift the market a few percentage points, if fake, it will fall back as fast as it rises.

Another serious issue is QT, which had been mentioned earlier in my Telegram(TG) - HSI UPDATEs.

Full impact still aren't discounted in the markets.  If rate hikes continue and QT 95b (from Sept) carries on for 6 months, a serious crash cannot be ruled out.