25 April 2007

UPDATE - Shg A


If you are familiar with charts, this one should be easy for you. The chart is that of Shanghai A shares index.

There are two declining tops - 2001.5 and 2004.2 which formed a down line finally broken in 2006.1.

During the uptrend, there were two glitches - one at 2006.6 and 2007.2, this leg up took 8 months, the last leg up will take less than 2/3 or 1/2 the time which means it will hit the peak 4-6 months from 2007.2 ie between 2007.6 - 2007.8 or earlier. So brace yourself for a rough ride soon.

Usually a peak is followed by a sharp drop and then followed by a quick rally which would not hit the peak or only slightly above the peak to dry up the last bit of buying power. This is called a double top which has devastating impact on the economy.

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