for readers who are familiar with this blog, you should have benefited from staying clear of HSBC. read earlier release for HSBC forecasts.
here comes Hang Seng albeit a bit late since the fallout is faster than predicted. Look at the 6 mth chart, this is clearly a multi top chart with neckline at 26000, the minimum magnitude going south would be 20000 [26000-6000], so brace yourself for a rough ride.
the tricky part is the 2 yr chart, if it does reach 20000, bounces up and falls back again breaching the 20000 mark, then a head and shoulder occurs and the chart looks very ugly.
how will recessions wound up hs index:
- a recession only causes upset of 25-35% from top,
- a severe one - 40-50%,
- a major downturn can chop 70-80% off the top [e.g. taiwan, japan and earlier downturn of china stock markets]
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2 comments:
So any strong reason will lead 20000 pt really happen in these few days ?
chart interpretation does not tell you the reason, however, it does tell you where the smart money is heading. looking for reasons is like explaining after the fact. stock market fluctuations are explained in the newpaper daily, but do they help you to determine entry or exit points?
review the HSBC update in Nov 07, it clearly shows that the smart money are unloading big chunks of HSBC stocks which lead to the multiple top with neckline at 132.
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