02 October 2009

US govt exiting markets

recently there are talks of the fed planning to exit markets when the time is right.

but that right time would be at least 18 months away. inflation might not be a factor for a long while, that does not mean raw mateirals etc would become cheap, prices of finished goods would ie margins of manufacturers are squeezed. why? us being the largest consumer market is hit from all sides:
  • weak house prices,
  • markedly reduced govt revenue esp state government who should balance their books which means further cuts ahead,
  • higher oil prices,
  • jobless recovery that does not boost jobs
  • banks curtailing lending
which in all do not boost the retail market and in turn would not boost growth since consumer spending makes up 70% of the GDP.

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