AUD CAD NZD

are rallies of the above currencies coming to an end?

aud

• the first round bottom, spanning a period of 16 years [90-07], with neckline at 0.8, bottom at 0.48 suggests it will reach 1.12, it did with a fall first from 0.98 to 0.6, then a sharp rally back up to 1.12. this took only 3 years, less than 1/3 the time of formation. this coincides with the period that reforms taken in china requires ever more of the mining metals sourced from australia.
• there are now four tops at around 1.10 and two tops at 1.07.
• however, the two year bottom formed between aug08 - aug10, neckline at 94 [this is the level citic engaged in long term accumulator of aud] suggests a top at 1.30 [94 + (94-60)]. this should usually realize in 1/3-1/2 of the time of formation [2 yrs]. yet by aug11, it did not materialize so it likely would not.
• the long term support level is at 0.8, but it may overshoot a bit if it does come that much down.

cad

• two bottoms have been formed with rsi also rising, this suggests the uptrend of the usd is confirmed
• a falling wedge has also formed with the high point at 1.17
• the first resistance will be 1.11, a low that is reached in 1991

nzd

• this is the most difficult to decipher.
• it has a rising neckline over many years [1998-2007] and is still above it
• but look at each time it formed a top, two lines at about same level with the third month's top way down, this happened in feb/mar08 and again in jul/aug11
• a rising wedge has formed that may take it down to 0.65

we have not heard about QE3 yet, maybe any such a move will again has a further disruption in the short term trend, but it could only be a fluctuation from the longer term trend.

usd should form at least 40-50% of your cash/bond portfolio, increasing it along with any rise in value of the above currencies.

if you hold properties based in usd or the likes, your usd cash position % should be even higher.