Link Reit, Hysan, HK Real Estate

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the link reit may be peaking out soon, the three phase of rising trend is exhausting the buying power.

now look at hysan, it looks like there is a rising wedge forming which could lead to a drastic fall if it does not break away from the rising wedge soon ie shooting up past 37.

both companies are similar in nature only that link still has more room for growth and improvement to its 30 years old portfolio.

my hunch is it will happen in less than 6 months.

another indication that real estate might be reaching a peak is that

• the new duties BSD and SSD will have a hard impact on residential transactions while channeling funds to commercial realty and car parks which recently has reached into stratosphere
• BSD will take away the support for the market when it falls and SSD prevents marginal buyers purchasing apartments although prices might then become more reasonable but their jobs are now at risk
• on QRW alone between Possession Street and Queen Street which is only might be a 100m long, there are more than 5 property agents on street level, also an indication that this will not be long before a set back is on the way or might be round the corner already.

Apple and Dow, HSI

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not long back, we talked about apple, now it is apple again, why?

because it was predicted earlier that apple will soon top out, now it has fallen 20% from peak price, it is likely to hit bottom soon and will end the recent dow fallout.

the reverse [downward] rsi vs the price uptrend spells trouble for apple and the fallout is real fast, but rsi is now hitting low range and will soon rise or stay flat.

then where will it land?

looking at the chart, the year began with apple at 426 and rose almost 70%, so anyone who own apple will have their shares grown 70%+ if they have not sold their shares in the past year end.

if it is going to form a head shoulders pattern, it has reached the neckline, my hunch is between 30%-40% from top ie  420-490. last price is 527.

watch out for a rising rsi vs a price downtrend to confirm the uptrend breakout, just like the downtrend breakout.

as there is a lot of speculation that the capital gains tax will rise from the current 15% back up to previous level of 20% in 2013, but a more likely scenario is 28% which has been the case for a long time in history at this level. if you hold stocks like apple with plenty of profits in hand, you would like the profits be taxed at 15% not 28%, this is one reason why apple has fallen so hard and dow's 1000 pt fall. we have seen tons of big wig investors unloading, one from facebook's board selling more than half his angel investments, lucasfilm owner selling out to disney, a key investor sold all his hp shares.

some guys will buy back their shares if the stock is a good one and hard hit. hp is not among it though.

in hk, we will soon have picc going for ipo, the dates are 22 nov to commence ipo applications and 5 dec listing, this may soon spell the end of the hsi downtrend.