Apple and Dow, HSI

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not long back, we talked about apple, now it is apple again, why?

because it was predicted earlier that apple will soon top out, now it has fallen 20% from peak price, it is likely to hit bottom soon and will end the recent dow fallout.

the reverse [downward] rsi vs the price uptrend spells trouble for apple and the fallout is real fast, but rsi is now hitting low range and will soon rise or stay flat.

then where will it land?

looking at the chart, the year began with apple at 426 and rose almost 70%, so anyone who own apple will have their shares grown 70%+ if they have not sold their shares in the past year end.

if it is going to form a head shoulders pattern, it has reached the neckline, my hunch is between 30%-40% from top ie  420-490. last price is 527.

watch out for a rising rsi vs a price downtrend to confirm the uptrend breakout, just like the downtrend breakout.

as there is a lot of speculation that the capital gains tax will rise from the current 15% back up to previous level of 20% in 2013, but a more likely scenario is 28% which has been the case for a long time in history at this level. if you hold stocks like apple with plenty of profits in hand, you would like the profits be taxed at 15% not 28%, this is one reason why apple has fallen so hard and dow's 1000 pt fall. we have seen tons of big wig investors unloading, one from facebook's board selling more than half his angel investments, lucasfilm owner selling out to disney, a key investor sold all his hp shares.

some guys will buy back their shares if the stock is a good one and hard hit. hp is not among it though.

in hk, we will soon have picc going for ipo, the dates are 22 nov to commence ipo applications and 5 dec listing, this may soon spell the end of the hsi downtrend.