UPDATE released 04 aug 23

if you have received my updates since april, the oil crisis should be no surprise and was anticipated months ago.

greenspan's evils

years ago i was also a fan of mr greenspan, not anymore. his recent mistakes are numerous:

- supporting every bursted bubble

• internet
• ltcm
• russian debt crisis
• property and bond [both markets are about to burst]

- kept interest rates artificially low in order to keep demand high

- kept interest rates low for too long

by not letting the markets correct themselves and playing tricks of god, he created unneeded demand and thus the recent oil crisis.

hongkongers know too well that deflation is a hole difficult to climb out of, however, stagflation hurts all levels especially the very poor - except maybe the oil barrons. since the price of subsistent goods [food and fuel ie bus/train fares] keep on rising, it becomes ever more difficult for the very poor to stand on their feet.

we have to bear in mind that power corrupts and it happens to greenspan too. he enjoys the command and respect attributed to his position as fed chairman and has held on to power for too long. no us president or cabinet posts last longer than two to three terms and greenspan survived more than four presidents. after one has been in power for too long, he just wouldnt quit on his own unless his health cannot afford to.

stock markets

recent trends indicate that both european and us markets are trading lower unless the markets got momentum to rise at least 10% above recent trading ranges ie dow trades above 11,000, hang seng above 13800, i could not see any major uptick in many markets.

gold

watch out this indicator if it trades and stays above 430, then inflation is really picking up and stock investors should panic.