UPDATE released 06 sep 16

for many of the past updates that you might have read, i have been emphasizing the impacts of aging on the global economy especially on the developed countries. it has a drag effect on the economy.

now look no further, cover story on businessweek latest issue confirms this trend - read below.

dow jones

its chart shows a rising wedge which predicts falling back to the base of the wedge - the 8000 mark. when and how [meaning what triggers it] is anybody's guess, hold your breath if you are taking chances in the stock market. it may still rally for the last leg up, take this as a sell opportunity instead of loading up more stocks.

us economy

ford, the car company, is planning big layoffs between now and 2008 taking 10k white collar and 30k blue collar jobs off its payroll. this will have multiplier effect on its suppliers, businesses relying on these employees to spend meaning the total payroll affected may be 2-3 folds. why such big layoffs - because of high oil prices and aging. when you retire, you dont tend to buy new cars so often than when you are still young or on the payroll [when you drive more]. if age 60 is retirement age, the first batch of people born right after the war [1945] have become retirees, there will be only more to come, not less.

the housing market is hitting lows with major builders forecasting lower housing starts, more inventory and fewer sales. that is only the start, there are more people who fall behind their mortgage payment for one month or more this year than last. if trends continue, us domestic economy is likely to contract faster than you may think. the housing market has a stronger effect on consumer demand than the stock market.

oil prices

in my 19 jul update, oil was forecasted to retreat and down it did.

look at bp, last time i said 65 is the key support for bp, it reached that support already. the chart shows a head and shoulders formation. if crude has to go lower, watch bp closely for any breakout on the downside below 65. prices of commodity related stock are a good indicator of the trend of that commodity as they usually run ahead of it.

us exch rates

us exch rates have largely remain in trading range except for nzd [nz may raise rates soon]. it may go lower if interest rates fall faster than people's expectation given the weak housing market which will soon impact interest rates decision of the fed.

From Businessweek

What's Really Propping Up The Economy

Since 2001, the health-care industry has added 1.7 million jobs. The rest of the private sector? None