07 August 2022

Berkshire Hathaway investment decisions

How do you interpret BH continuous investment in OXY and its likely decision to dispose of its stake in BYD?

The decisions seem to contradict each other, why?

If EV maker BYD is successful, it will likely reduce gasoline usage and thus reduce dependence on oil, therefore impacting oil stocks.

But if you look more closely, the decisions might not look so contradictory.

It's unlikely all motor cars on the road can switch to EV although many countries in the West make promises to go green and reduce combustion engines by certain dates.  Recent research suggests there's not enough lithium on earth to be turned into car battery for EV use, thus EV market share could plateau off if lithium batteries become exhaustively expensive after EV grew to a certain percentage of market.

Given current inflation rates, EV might reach the plateau even earlier as oil gets expensive, everything becomes more expensive and thus pushing lithium battery costs too high to compete with internal combustion cars.

If there are other types of car battery becoming popular before EV comes to its demise, they might still save EV's future.

Some of them being sodium battery and solid state battery which had already been tested in lab, whether they can fit into current EV without major manufacturing changes remains to be seen.  Any major changes to the car manufacturing process means another round of investments by EV maker which might bankrupt many of them as some haven't yet turn a profit.

So BH decisions may make some sense.

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