26 August 2022

The Global Economy in the future

We haven't seen any special observations leading to the following guesstimate, but my hunch is it is likely to happen.


Will the US do further QE in the future, likely and not likely.  


Why likely, only in extreme circumstances like Covid, a depression or a war involving US directly which cannot be ruled out of such happenings in the future.  


Why not likely, the Fed would like to keep the government spendings in check and also to re-establish the credibility which it has lost since leaving QE on for too long creating serious inflation.  Another reason is labor gets even tighter going forward since Covid pushes more people [who can afford] to retire early or has since retired because of life uncertainties.  This huge group of retirees will need big labor to serve their retirement which wouldn't be easy to cover entirely by government and labor costs will keep rising as people retire.

If interest rates remain high in the range 3-5% for medium to long term, investments are more difficult to come by and with a smaller young population, it won't be easy to make enough returns to justify them.  US government will pay more interest leaving it unable to serve its citizens for the good life they enjoyed back in the years between 1990-2020.


Economies around the world will then teeter on the brink of recovery and recessions more often as interest rates are unlikely to drop as much as before to feed speculations and investments thereby reducing returns from stock and bond markets.

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